Improving Short-Term QPF Using Geostationary Satellite All-Sky Infrared Radiances: Real-Time Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecast during the PRECIP 2020 and 2021 Experiments

The Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP) aims to improve our understanding of extreme rainfall processes in the East Asian summer monsoon. A convection-permitting ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system (the PSU WRF-EnKF system) was run in real time in the summers of 2020–21 in advance of the 2022 field campaign, assimilating all-sky infrared (IR) radiances from the geostationary Himawari-8 and GOES-16 satellites, and providing 48-h ensemble forecasts every day for weather briefings and discussions. This is the first time that all-sky IR data assimilation has been performed in a real-time forecast system at a convection-permitting resolution for several seasons. Compared with retrospective forecasts that exclude all-sky IR radiances, rainfall predictions are statistically significantly improved out to at least 4–6 h for the real-time forecasts, which is comparable to the time scale of improvements gained from assimilating observations from the dense ground-based Doppler weather radars. The assimilation of all-sky IR radiances also reduced the forecast errors of large-scale environments and helped to maintain a more reasonable ensemble spread compared with the counterpart experiments that did not assimilate all-sky IR radiances. The results indicate strong potential for improving routine short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts using these high-spatiotemporal-resolution satellite observations in the future.Significance StatementDuring the summers of 2020/21, the PSU WRF-EnKF data assimilation and forecast system was run in real time in advance of the 2022 Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP), assimilating all-sky (clear-sky and cloudy) infrared radiances from geostationary satellites into a numerical weather prediction model and providing ensemble forecasts. This study presents the first-of-its-kind systematic evaluation of the impacts of assimilating all-sky infrared radiances on short-term qualitative precipitation forecasts using multiyear, multiregion, real-time ensemble forecasts. Results suggest that rainfall forecasts are improved out to at least 4–6 h with the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiances, comparable to the influence of assimilating radar observations, with benefits in forecasting large-scale environments and representing atmospheric uncertainties as well.

Methane emissions are predominantly responsible for record-breaking atmospheric methane growth rates in 2020 and 2021

The global atmospheric methane growth rates reported by NOAA for 2020 and 2021 are the largest since systematic measurements began in 1983. To explore the underlying reasons for these anomalous growth rates, we use newly available methane data from the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to estimate methane surface emissions. Relative to baseline values in 2019, we find that a significant global increase in methane emissions of 27.0 ± 11.3 and 20.8 ± 11.4 Tg is needed to reproduce observed atmospheric methane in 2020 and 2021, respectively, assuming fixed climatological values for OH. We see the largest annual increases in methane emissions during 2020 over Eastern Africa (14 ± 3 Tg), tropical Asia (3 ± 4 Tg), tropical South America (5 ± 4 Tg), and temperate Eurasia (3 ± 3 Tg), and the largest reductions are observed over China (-6 ± 3 Tg) and India (-2 ± 3 Tg). We find comparable emission changes in 2021, relative to 2019, except for tropical and temperate South America where emissions increased by 9 ± 4 and 4 ± 3 Tg, respectively, and for temperate North America where emissions increased by 5 ± 2 Tg. The elevated contributions we saw in 2020 over the western half of Africa (-5 ± 3 Tg) are substantially reduced in 2021, compared to our 2019 baseline. We find statistically significant positive correlations between anomalies of tropical methane emissions and groundwater, consistent with recent studies that have highlighted a growing role for microbial sources over the tropics. Emission reductions over India and China are expected in 2020 due to the Covid-19 lockdown but continued in 2021, which we do not currently understand. To investigate the role of reduced OH concentrations during the Covid-19 lockdown in 2020 on the elevated atmospheric methane growth in 2020–2021, we extended our inversion state vector to include monthly scaling factors for OH concentrations over six latitude bands. During 2020, we find that tropospheric OH is reduced by 1.4 ± 1.7 % relative to the corresponding 2019 baseline value. The corresponding revised global growth of a posteriori methane emissions in 2020 decreased by 34 % to 17.9 ± 13.2 Tg, relative to the a posteriori value that we inferred using fixed climatological OH values, consistent with sensitivity tests using the OH climatology inversion using reduced values for OH. The counter statement is that 66 % of the global increase in atmospheric methane during 2020 was due to increased emissions, particularly from tropical regions. Regional flux differences between the joint methane–OH inversion and the OH climatology inversion in 2020 are typically much smaller than 10 %. We find that OH is reduced by a much smaller amount during 2021 than in 2020, representing about 10 % of the growth of atmospheric methane in that year. Therefore, we conclude that most of the observed increase in atmospheric methane during 2020 and 2021 is due to increased emissions, with a significant contribution from reduced levels of OH.

Global Atmospheric Composition Needs from Future Ultraviolet–Visible–Near-Infrared (UV–Vis–NIR) NOAA Satellite Instruments

Presentations spanned a range of applications: the public health impacts of poor air quality and environmental justice;greenhouse gas measuring, monitoring, reporting, and verification (GHG MMRV);stratospheric ozone monitoring;and various applications of satellite observations to improve models, including data assimilation in global Earth system models. The combination of methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and NO2 retrievals can improve confidence in emissions inventories and model performance, and together these data products would be of use in future air quality management tools. The ability to retrieve additional trace gases (e.g., ethane, isoprene, and ammonia) in the thermal IR along with those measured in the UV–Vis–NIR region would be extremely useful for air quality applications, including source apportionment analysis (e.g., for oil/natural gas extraction, biogenic, and agricultural sources). Ground-level ozone is one of six criteria pollutants for which the EPA sets National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) to protect against human health and welfare effects.

Updating and Evaluating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of an SO2 Bias-Scaling Method

We updated the anthropogenic emissions inventory in NOAA's operational Global Ensemble Forecast for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) to improve the model's prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We used a methodology to quickly update the pivotal global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions using a speciated AOD bias-scaling method. The AOD bias-scaling method is based on the latest model predictions compared to NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). The model bias was subsequently applied to the CEDS 2019 SO2 emissions for adjustment. The monthly mean GEFS-Aerosols AOD predictions were evaluated against a suite of satellite observations (e.g., MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS), ground-based AERONET observations, and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) ensemble results. The results show that transitioning from CEDS 2014 to CEDS 2019 emissions data led to a significant improvement in the operational GEFS-Aerosols model performance, and applying the bias-scaled SO2 emissions could further improve global AOD distributions. The biases of the simulated AODs against the observed AODs varied with observation type and seasons by a factor of 3~13 and 2~10, respectively. The global AOD distributions showed that the differences in the simulations against ICAP, MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS were the largest in March–May (MAM) and the smallest in December–February (DJF). When evaluating against the ground-truth AERONET data, the bias-scaling methods improved the global seasonal correlation (r), Index of Agreement (IOA), and mean biases, except for the MAM season, when the negative regional biases were exacerbated compared to the positive regional biases. The effect of bias-scaling had the most beneficial impact on model performance in the regions dominated by anthropogenic emissions, such as East Asia. However, it showed less improvement in other areas impacted by the greater relative transport of natural emissions sources, such as India. The accuracies of the reference observation or assimilation data for the adjusted inputs and the model physics for outputs, and the selection of regions with less seasonal emissions of natural aerosols determine the success of the bias-scaling methods. A companion study on emission scaling of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols needs further improved aerosol prediction.

CSES Satellite Observations of 50 Hz Power Line Radiation Over Mainland China and Its Response to COVID‐19

We present a low‐altitude satellite survey of power line harmonic radiation (PLHR) at 50 Hz over Mainland China. We analyzed the month‐to‐month variation pattern in PLHR occurrence rate and further analyzed its correlation with some influencing factors (i.e., solar radiation, lightning flashes, and electricity consumption) using CSES satellite electric field data from 2019 to 2021. We also investigate the response of PLHR occurrence rate to COVID‐19. The statistical results show the dayside PLHR occurrence rate decreasing from winter to summer solstice and increasing from summer to winter solstice, which indicates it is controlled by the solar radiation. The nightside variation is more complex, which may be due to many sources that could influence the nightside lower ionosphere. The PLHR occurrence rate significantly decreased over Mainland China in February 2020, which is because of the significant decrease in electricity consumption due to the suspension of industrial production caused by COVID‐19.Alternate :Plain Language SummaryPower line harmonic radiation (PLHR) is the electromagnetic waves radiated by electric power systems at harmonic frequencies of 50 or 60 Hz, depending on the frequency of the system on the ground. Previous research mainly focuses on identification of individual PLHR events and their subsequent analysis. However, the number of base‐frequency PLHR signal events is the most abundant, which is suitable for the statistical study of PLHR occurrence rate and its variation pattern, and further study of the factors affecting its variation pattern. In this paper, we use 3 years of electric field data from the China Seismo‐Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES) which is an LEO satellite launched into orbit in February 2018 to investigate the month‐to‐month variation pattern of PLHR occurrence rate over Mainland China and its correlation with the influencing factors. The response of PLHR occurrence rate to COVID‐19 are also investigated.

Satellite quantification of oil and natural gas methane emissions in the US and Canada including contributions from individual basins

We use satellite methane observations from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), for May 2018 to February 2020, to quantify methane emissions from individual oil and natural gas (O/G) basins in the US and Canada using a high-resolution (∼25 km) atmospheric inverse analysis. Our satellite-derived emission estimates show good consistency with in situ field measurements (R=0.96) in 14 O/G basins distributed across the US and Canada. Aggregating our results to the national scale, we obtain O/G-related methane emission estimates of12.6±2.1 Tg a-1 for the US and 2.2±0.6 Tg a-1 for Canada, 80 % and 40 %, respectively, higher than the national inventories reported to the United Nations. About 70 % of the discrepancy in the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) inventory can be attributed to five O/G basins, the Permian, Haynesville, Anadarko, Eagle Ford, and Barnett basins, which in total account for 40 % of US emissions. We show more generally that our TROPOMI inversion framework can quantify methane emissions exceeding 0.2–0.5 Tg a-1 from individual O/G basins, thus providing an effective tool for monitoring methane emissions from large O/G basins globally.

Air quality impacts of COVID-19 lockdown measures detected from space using high spatial resolution observations of multiple trace gases from Sentinel-5P/TROPOMI

The aim of this paper is to highlight how TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) trace gas data can best be used and interpreted to understand event-based impacts on air quality from regional to city scales around the globe. For this study, we present the observed changes in the atmospheric column amounts of five trace gases (NO2, SO2, CO, HCHO, and CHOCHO) detected by the Sentinel-5P TROPOMI instrument and driven by reductions in anthropogenic emissions due to COVID-19 lockdown measures in 2020. We report clear COVID-19-related decreases in TROPOMI NO2 column amounts on all continents. For megacities, reductions in column amounts of tropospheric NO2 range between 14 % and 63 %. For China and India, supported by NO2 observations, where the primary source of anthropogenic SO2 is coal-fired power generation, we were able to detect sector-specific emission changes using the SO2 data. For HCHO and CHOCHO, we consistently observe anthropogenic changes in 2-week-averaged column amounts over China and India during the early phases of the lockdown periods. That these variations over such a short timescale are detectable from space is due to the high resolution and improved sensitivity of the TROPOMI instrument. For CO, we observe a small reduction over China, which is in concert with the other trace gas reductions observed during lockdown;however, large interannual differences prevent firm conclusions from being drawn. The joint analysis of COVID-19-lockdown-driven reductions in satellite-observed trace gas column amounts using the latest operational and scientific retrieval techniques for five species concomitantly is unprecedented. However, the meteorologically and seasonally driven variability of the five trace gases does not allow for drawing fully quantitative conclusions on the reduction in anthropogenic emissions based on TROPOMI observations alone. We anticipate that in future the combined use of inverse modeling techniques with the high spatial resolution data from S5P/TROPOMI for all observed trace gases presented here will yield a significantly improved sector-specific, space-based analysis of the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures as compared to other existing satellite observations. Such analyses will further enhance the scientific impact and societal relevance of the TROPOMI mission.

Beyond the lockdowns: satellite observations of aerosol optical depth through 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

Anticipated future reductions in aerosol emissions are expected to accelerate warming and substantially change precipitation characteristics. Therefore, it is vital to identify the existing patterns and possible future pathways of anthropogenic aerosol reductions. The COVID-19 pandemic prompted abrupt, global declines in transportation and industrial activities, providing opportunities to study the aerosol effects of pandemic-driven emissions changes. Here, measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from two satellite instruments were used to characterize aerosol burdens throughout 2020 in four Northern Hemisphere source regions (Eastern & Central China, the United States, India, and Europe). In most regions, record-low measures of AOD persisted beyond the earliest ‘lockdown’ periods of the pandemic. Record-low values were most concentrated during the boreal spring and summer months, when 56% to 72% of sampled months showed record-low AOD values for their respective regions. However, in India and Eastern & Central China, the COVID-19 AOD signature was eclipsed by sources of natural variability (dust) and a multi-year trend, respectively. In the United States and Europe, a likely COVID-19 signal peaks in the summer of 2020, contributing as much as −.01 to −.03 AOD units to observed anomalies.

COVID-19 Lockdown: Impact on PM10 and PM2.5 in Six Megacities in the World Assessed Using NASA's MERRA-2 Reanalysis

The changes in air quality were investigated in six megacities during the shutdown phases in 2020 and were compared to the same time periods in the previous 10 years (2010-2019) using the data of Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis and Research and Application, version 2 (MERRA-2). The concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 were greatly reduced in all megacities during the lockdown in 2020 when compared to the same period in 2019 and in the previous ten years. The highest reduction in PM10 was recorded in Delhi, and Sao Paulo (21%, and 15% and by 27%, and 9%), when compared with the concentrations in 2019 and in the period 2010-2019, respectively. Similarly, levels of PM2.5 in Delhi, Sao Paulo, Beijing, and Mumbai decreased by 20%, 14%, 12%, and 10%, respectively in 2020 when compared to the last ten years. Results indicated that the lockdown is an effective mitigation measure to improve air quality. The MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset could be a vital tool in air quality studies in places with a lack of In-situ observations.

XCO2 and XCH4 Reconstruction Using GOSAT Satellite Data Based on EOF-Algorithm

The Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) can help to ascertain the global distribution of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), and how the sources and sinks of these gases vary by season, year, and location. However, the data provided by the GOSAT level 2 and 3 products have certain limitations due to their lack of spatial and temporal information;even with the application of the kriging geostatistical method on the level 2 products, the processing algorithms still need further upgrades. In this study, we apply an empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based method on the GOSAT L3 products (137 images, from January 2010 to May 2021) to estimate the column average of carbon dioxide and methane (XCO2–XCH4) within the entire Earth. The reconstructed results are validated against the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (i.e., TCCON), with 31 in situ stations, and GOSAT L4B column-averaged data, using 107 layers. The results show an excellent agreement with the TCCON data and exhibit an R-squared coefficient of 0.95 regarding the CO2 measurements and 0.86 regarding the CH4 measurements. Therefore, this methodology can be incorporated into the processing steps used to map global greenhouse gases.

Convection-Permitting Models for Climate Research

4th International Convection-Permitting Modeling Workshop for Climate Research What: The purpose of the workshop was to discuss the performance of convection-permitting models (<4-km horizontal grid spacing) at global and local scales and also to discuss the potential of CPMs data for hazard and impact studies. Because of the rapid development of the convection-permitting modeling (CPM) field, we felt the need to host a virtual workshop this year to maintain community interactions and to provide a forum where scientific advances are presented and discussed. [...]the use of satellite observations and targeted model experiments that make use of field campaign data were discussed for evaluating global CPMs. High-resolution and high-quality observations were identified as crucial for a better understanding of processes and phenomena that cause extreme events and for supporting the development of parameterization schemes. Since rainfall is expected to intensify at small spatial and temporal scales in future climates, the impact of precipitation on the initiation of landslides in small river catchments becomes increasingly important.

Ozone pollution during the COVID-19 lockdown in the spring of 2020 over Europe, analysed from satellite observations, in situ measurements, and models

We present a comprehensive study integrating satellite observations of ozone pollution, in situ measurements, and chemistry-transport model simulations for quantifying the role of anthropogenic emission reductions during the COVID-19 lockdown in spring 2020 over Europe. Satellite observations are derived from the IASI+GOME2 (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer + Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2) multispectral synergism, which provides better sensitivity to near-surface ozone pollution. These observations are mainly analysed in terms of differences between the average on 1–15 April 2020, when the strictest lockdown restrictions took place, and the same period in 2019. They show clear enhancements of near-surface ozone in central Europe and northern Italy, as well as some other hotspots, which are typically characterized by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemical regimes. An overall reduction of ozone is observed elsewhere, where ozone chemistry is limited by the abundance of NOx. The spatial distribution of positive and negative ozone concentration anomalies observed from space is in relatively good quantitative agreement with surface in situ measurements over the continent (a correlation coefficient of 0.55, a root-mean-squared difference of 11 ppb, and the same standard deviation and range of variability). An average difference of ∼ 8 ppb between the two observational datasets is observed, which can partly be explained by the fact the satellite approach retrieves partial columns of ozone with a peak sensitivity above the surface (near 2 km of altitude over land and averaging kernels reaching the middle troposphere over ocean).For assessing the impact of the reduction of anthropogenic emissions during the lockdown, we adjust the satellite and in situ surface observations for subtracting the influence of meteorological conditions in 2020 and 2019. This adjustment is derived from the chemistry-transport model simulations using the meteorological fields of each year and identical emission inventories. Using adjustments adapted for the altitude and sensitivity of each observation, both datasets show consistent estimates of the influence of lockdown emission reduction. They both show lockdown-associated ozone enhancements in hotspots over central Europe and northern Italy, with a reduced amplitude with respect to the total changes observed between the 2 years and an overall reduction elsewhere over Europe and the ocean. Satellite observations additionally provide the ozone anomalies in the regions remote from in situ sensors, an enhancement over the Mediterranean likely associated with maritime traffic emissions, and a marked large-scale reduction of ozone elsewhere over ocean (particularly over the North Sea), in consistency with previous assessments done with ozone sonde measurements in the free troposphere.These observational assessments are compared with model-only estimations, using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model. Whereas a general qualitative consistency of positive and negative ozone anomalies is observed with respect to observational estimates, significant changes are seen in their amplitudes. Models underestimate the range of variability of the ozone changes by at least a factor 2 with respect to the two observational datasets, both for enhancements and decreases of ozone. Moreover, a significant ozone decrease observed at a large hemispheric scale is not simulated since the modelling domain is the European continent. As simulations only consider the troposphere, the influence from stratospheric ozone is also missing. Sensitivity analyses also show an important role of vertical mixing of atmospheric constituents, which depends on the meteorological fields used in the simulation and significantly modify the amplitude of the changes of ozone pollution during the lockdown.

Quantifying urban, industrial, and background changes in NO2 during the COVID-19 lockdown period based on TROPOMI satellite observations

The COVID-19 lockdown had a large impact on anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and particularly on nitrogen dioxide (NO2). While the overall NO2 decline over some large cities is well-established, understanding the details remains a challenge since multiple source categories contribute. In this study, a new method of isolation of three components (background NO2, NO2 from urban sources, and NO2 from industrial point sources) is applied to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on each of them. The approach is based on fitting satellite data by a statistical model with empirical plume dispersion functions driven by a meteorological reanalysis. Population density and surface elevation data as well as coordinates of industrial sources were used in the analysis. The tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) values measured by the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinel-5 Precursor over 261 urban areas for the period from 16 March to 15 June 2020 were compared with the average VCD values for the same period in 2018 and 2019. While the background NO2 component remained almost unchanged, the urban NO2 component declined by -18 % to -28 % over most regions. India, South America, and a part of Europe (particularly, Italy, France, and Spain) demonstrated a-40 % to -50 % urban emission decline. In contrast, the decline over urban areas in China, where the lockdown was over during the analysed period, was, on average, only -4.4±8 %. Emissions from large industrial sources in the analysed urban areas varied greatly from region to region from -4.8±6 % for China to -40±10 % for India. Estimated changes in urban emissions are correlated with changes in Google mobility data (the correlation coefficient is 0.62) confirming that changes in traffic were one of the key elements in the decline in urban NO2 emissions. No correlation was found between changes in background NO2 and Google mobility data. On the global scale, the background and urban components were remarkably stable in 2018, 2019, and 2021, with averages of all analysed areas all being within ±2.5 % and suggesting that there were no substantial drifts or shifts in TROPOMI data. The 2020 data are clearly an outlier: in 2020, the mean background component for all analysed areas (without China) was -6.0%±1.2 % and the mean urban component was -26.7±2.6 % or 20σ below the baseline level from the other years.

Unexpected Impact of COVID-19 Lockdown on the Air Quality in the Metro Atlanta, USA Using Ground-based and Satellite Observations

We studied the impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) lockdown on the air quality over the Atlanta area using satellite and ground-based observations, meteorological reanalysis data and traffic information. Unlike other cities, we found the air quality has improved slightly over the Atlanta area during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown period (March 14–April 30, 2020), compared to the analogous period of 2019 (March 14-April 30, 2019). Ground NO2 concentrations have decreased slightly 10.8% and 8.2% over the near-road (NR) and urban ambient (UA) stations, respectively. Tropospheric NO2 columns have reduced 13%-49% over the Atlanta area from space-borne observations of TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). Ground ozone and PM2.5 have decreased 15.7% an ~5%, respectively. This slight air quality improvement is primarily caused by the reduced human activities, as COVID-19 lockdowns have reduced ~50% human activities, measured by traffic volume. Higher wind speed and precipitations also make the meteorological conditions favorable to this slight air quality improvement. We have not found a significant improvement in Atlanta amid the lockdown when human activities have reduced ~50%. Further studies are needed to understand the impacts of reduced human activities on atmospheric chemistry. We also found TROPOMI and ground measurements have disagreements on NO2 reductions, as collocated TROPOMI observations revealed ~23% and ~21% reductions of tropospheric NO2 columns over NR and UA stations, respectively. Several factors may explain this disagreement: First, tropospheric NO2 columns and ground NO2 concentrations are not necessarily the same, although they are highly correlated in the afternoon;Second, meteorological conditions may have different impacts on TROPMI and ground measurements. Third, TROPOMI may underestimate tropospheric NO2 due to uncertainties from air mass factors. Fourth, the uncertainties of chemiluminescence NO2 measurements used by ground stations. Consequently, studies using space-borne tropospheric NO2 column and ground NO2 measurements should take these factors into account.

Impact Assessment of COVID-19 on Variations of SO2, NO2, CO and AOD over East China

The COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) broke out in the late of 2019. On January 23 in Wuhan, and later in all other cities of the country, there were taken measures to control the spread of the virus through quarantine measures. This article focused on East China and attempted to assess comprehensively the environmental impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. This study analyzed satellite observational data of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the period before the outbreak of the epidemic and during the implementation of preventive measures and control of COVID-19, as well as compared it with the data obtained in the same period of 2019. The results of the analysis showed that the COVID-19 lockdown improved air quality in the short term, but as soon as coal consumption at power plants and refineries returned to normal levels due to the resumption of their work, pollution levels returned to their previous level. The levels of CO and NO2 showed the most significant decrease (20 and 30%), since they were mainly associated with a decrease in economic growth and transport restrictions that led to a change in energy consumption and a reduction in emissions. This study can complement the scientific community and environmental protection policy makers, not only to assess the impact of outbreak on air quality, but also for its effectiveness as a simple alternative program of action to improve air quality.

Variability of nitrogen oxide emission fluxes and lifetimes estimated from Sentinel-5P TROPOMI observations

Satellite observations of the high-resolution TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on Sentinel-5 Precursor can be used to observe nitrogen dioxide (NO2) at city scales to quantify short time variability of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and lifetimes on a daily and seasonal basis. In this study, 2 years of TROPOMI tropospheric NO2 columns, having a spatial resolution of up to 3.5 km × 5.5 km, have been analyzed together with wind and ozone data. NOx lifetimes and emission fluxes are estimated for 50 different NOx sources comprising cities, isolated power plants, industrial regions, oil fields, and regions with a mix of sources distributed around the world. The retrieved NOx emissions are in agreement with other TROPOMI-based estimates and reproduce the variability seen in power plant stack measurements but are in general lower than the analyzed stack measurements and emission inventory results. Separation into seasons shows a clear seasonal dependence of NOx emissions with in general the highest emissions during winter, except for isolated power plants and especially sources in hot desert climates, where the opposite is found. The NOx lifetime shows a systematic latitudinal dependence with an increase in lifetime from 2 to 8 h with latitude but only a weak seasonal dependence. For most of the 50 sources including the city of Wuhan in China, a clear weekly pattern of NOx emissions is found, with weekend-to-weekday ratios of up to 0.5 but with a high variability for the different locations. During the Covid-19 lockdown period in 2020, strong reductions in the NOx emissions were observed for New Delhi, Buenos Aires, and Madrid.

Predicting the effect of confinement on the COVID-19 spread using machine learning enriched with satellite air pollution observations.

The real-time monitoring of reductions of economic activity by containment measures and its effect on the transmission of the coronavirus (COVID-19) is a critical unanswered question. We inferred 5,642 weekly activity anomalies from the meteorology-adjusted differences in spaceborne tropospheric NO2 column concentrations after the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak relative to the baseline from 2016 to 2019. Two satellite observations reveal reincreasing economic activity associated with lifting control measures that comes together with accelerating COVID-19 cases before the winter of 2020/2021. Application of the near-real-time satellite NO2 observations produces a much better prediction of the deceleration of COVID-19 cases than applying the Oxford Government Response Tracker, the Public Health and Social Measures, or human mobility data as alternative predictors. A convergent cross-mapping suggests that economic activity reduction inferred from NO2 is a driver of case deceleration in most of the territories. This effect, however, is not linear, while further activity reductions were associated with weaker deceleration. Over the winter of 2020/2021, nearly 1 million daily COVID-19 cases could have been avoided by optimizing the timing and strength of activity reduction relative to a scenario based on the real distribution. Our study shows how satellite observations can provide surrogate data for activity reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic and monitor the effectiveness of containment to the pandemic before vaccines become widely available.